Hall and Hayworth tied for 19th district

Less than a few days remain until Americans take to the polls next Tuesday, Nov. 2 to vote in the midterm elections. Incumbent Democratic congressmen from around the country have been facing strong competition from conservative opponents, and New York's 19th district, which sees Democratic incumbent John Hall square off against retired ophthalmologist and Republican newcomer Nan Hayworth, is no different in that respect.

Hall has been representing the 19th district since 2006, when he defeated Republican incumbent Sue Kelly, who had held the seat since 1995. Hall has largely toed the party line since his last reelection in 2008, voting with a majority of his fellow Democrats 98.2 percent of the time during the current Congress, according to the Washington Post.

"I suppose health care is where [Hayworth] has gotten her main thrust [against Hall]," suggested Professor of Political Science Richard Born. "Health care is on the national level not popular with the public."

Hall voted for the Democrats' health care reform bill earlier this year, though he now indicates that he would like to make changes to the legislation, including the elimination of the health insurance industry's anti-trust exemption. Meanwhile, Hayworth is pressing for full repeal of the new legislation, arguing instead that access to health savings accounts should be facilitated.

Hayworth is also launching strong attacks against Hall for his support of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's leadership and agenda, charging in a press release that Hall has voted with Pelosi 98 percent of the time, and noting on her campaign's Facebook page that John Hall supports returning Pelosi to the leadership.

"Pelosi is being demonized across the country in a fashion that's very similar to the way in which the Democrats tried to demonize Newt Gingrich when he was Speaker [of the House] in the 1996 elections," explained Born. He noted, however, that Hayworth's attacks on Hall's voting record "are actually a little bit misleading because the Speaker of the House infrequently votes."

However, Born feels that Hall's biggest weakness is ultimately his party affiliation. "The more important fact is [that] Democrats are discredited. This is an anti-democratic year and Hall is a Democrat." Indeed, pollsters have been predicting huge losses for the Democrats next week. For example, respected forecaster Charlie Cook recently predicted that the Democrats will lose between 48 and 60 House seats, well over the 39 seats Republicans need to gain to take control of the House.

Hayworth has touted her experience as an ophthalmologist and small business owner throughout her campaign, suggesting that her experiences give her a unique perspective on related political issues such as health care reform and taxation; however, Hayworth's outsider status might also be interpreted as her greatest weakness. "Her political experience has been extremely limited and she isn't very well known, so I see those as being aggressive weaknesses," said Born. "If she had some kind of political background, if she had held some kind of a local office, at least, you'd maybe see her as a more serious [candidate.]"

With regard to Hayworth's political positions, Born said, "If you take everything into account, she's one of the more moderate Republicans." This is perhaps best exemplified by her pro-choice stance on abortion, although her support of mainstream Republican economic policies—she plans to institute tax cuts and lower government spending—makes her seem tame in comparison to some of this election cycle's more infamous Republican candidates.

Despite her generally moderate political views, Born pointed to three aspects of Hayworth's platform that could hurt her in the election: her support of private social security accounts, or, in other words, the partial privatization of social security; her desire to extend the Bush tax cuts and her wish to repeal the capital gains tax.

"All of these are very conservative positions to take," Born argued. "There's something [for Hall] to work with there [for] hammering home this message, trying to portray her as being really a conservative in moderate's clothing."

Hall and Hayworth are tied in the polls, prompting many analysts to conclude that the outcome of the election will be a toss-up. Born, however, suggests that the tie could be a sign of a victory for Hayworth.

"There is a school of thought that says that people who are undecided going in the last days of the campaign are going to vote for the challenger to the incumbent," Born said. "I think that's correct, so the fact that the polls are neck and neck, in reality…these undecided [voters] might well break this election for Hayworth at the end."

He points to Hayworth's narrow lead in some polls as another sign that she may take control of the district. "The fact that she is not terribly well known, and that she has a lead of any kind against an incumbent, that's really dangerous for Hall."

Hall himself seems unfazed by the relative uncertainty of the election's outcome, having recently told the Poughkeepsie Journal, "If I listened to the polls in 2006, I never would have run. I wasn't favored to win the primary, let alone the general election."

Born suggests that Hall's optimism might not be completely unfounded, pointing to the fact that polling results have not changed over the past several weeks. "I've yet to see any survey indication that Hayworth is breaking out [in the lead]…and that has to be construed as at least a slight bit of good news for Hall."