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Changes in global energy programs may impact America’s place in the world

News Editor

Published: Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Updated: Wednesday, December 12, 2012 13:12


courtesy of

According to the report, Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in indices of overall power by 2030.

On Dec. 10, The New York Times (NYT) ran an article entitled “Study Predicts Future for U.S. as No. 2 Economy, but Energy Independent.” The National Intelligence Council conducted the study and analyzed the data over four years, and has come to the conclusion that China’s economy will overcome that of the United States by the year 2030.

While the report noted that the U.S. will remain “first among equals,” the Telegraph quoted: “Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and Pax Americana­—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down” (“US will be ‘first among equals’ in 2030,” 12.11.12).

The study also noted several “game changers” that will most influence global politics in the upcoming decades: “a crisis-prone world economy, shortcomings in governance, conflicts within states and between them, the impact of new technologies and whether the United States can ‘work with new partners to reinvent the international system’” (NYT).

Russia, along with other countries dependent on oil, will wane in power as the world moves towards alternative energy sources. Over a dozen countries, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Uganda and Yemen, were singled out as “at high risk of state failure” by 2030 (NYT).

The study also analyzed population. As reported in The Telegraph, “The National Intelligence Council estimated that the world will have nearly 8.3 billion people in 2030, up from 7.1 billion now, but that the average age will be older—with potentially giant consequences.”

The reported concluded: “In terms of the indices of overall power—GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment—Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined” (Politico, “Intelligence community: U.S. out as sole superpower by 2030,” 12.10.12). 

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